American scientists will again sweep the majority of Nobel prizes at this week’s award announcements in Sweden, analysts have predicted. But they have also warned this dominance may soon come to end. David Pendlebury, a citation analyst who has correctly predicted 10 Nobel winners since 2002, believes that the countries of the east, particularly China, will soon start to rule the awards for science’s greatest prize.
“In the first half of the 20th century the UK, Germany, and France dominated the sciences. The US emerged as the world leader after the second world war. Now, I believe we will begin to see as many Nobel prize winners from Asia as we do from the US and Europe.” Pendlebury, who works for Thomson Reuters, was speaking on the eve of the announcement of this year’s awards. The prize for medicine will be revealed tomorrow; physics on Tuesday and chemistry on Wednesday. The peace prize will be announced on Thursday; economics next Monday; and literature later this month. A maximum of three individuals will be allowed to share a Nobel, with each prize being worth around 1 million pounds.
Over the past 10 years, 31 out of the 76 individuals who won science Nobels were American-based while 16 out of the 21 economics winners were from the US. By contrast, Britain – a nation with a fair Nobel reputation – won eight physiology prizes, one for physics and one for economics.