US officials are taking heart in mounting evidence that China, while still worried about the repercussions of a North Korean collapse, is tiring of protecting its troublesome ally.<\/p>\n
Though wary of each other on other international issues, the United States and China are demonstrating renewed cooperation as North Korea ratchets up its belligerence with threats of an imminent nuclear test.<\/p>\n
First, the two world powers reached a compromise that allowed unanimous passage earlier this week of a UN Security Council resolution condemning a December long-range rocket test and tightening sanctions \u2013 a vote that prompted North Korea to threaten \u201call-out action\u201d against \u201cbig countries.\u201d<\/p>\n
Then at talks in Beijing on Friday, the US envoy for North Korean issues, Glyn Davies, said that the US and China \u201cachieved a very strong degree of consensus\u201d on how to confront North Korea’s latest threats.<\/p>\n
That comment came as Beijing’s Global Times newspaper, which is aligned with China’s ruling Communist Party, said in an editorial Friday that \u201cif North Korea engages in further nuclear tests, China will not hesitate to reduce its assistance” \u2013 an unusually blunt warning.<\/p>\n
Passage of the UN resolution and other signs of growing international unity suggest Pyongyang should consider itself on notice, some regional analysts say.<\/p>\n
\u201cA new game is on with North Korea,\u201d and this week’s UN resolution \u201cindicates that any new nuke test or missile launch will bring yet another round of even stronger and more targeted sanctions,\u201d says George Lopez, a former UN monitor of North Korea sanctions and a professor of peace studies at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Ind.<\/p>\n
The new environment \u201cis both the best and the worst for the Obama administration,\u201d Professor Lopez says: The \u201cworst\u201d because any a nuclear test would lead to Republican criticism of his foreign policy, but the \u201cbest\u201d because a test would almost certainly present Obama with the \u201copportunity\u201d to show that the world \u2013 including the Chinese and Russians \u2013 is ready for \u201cmeaningful united action.\u201d<\/p>\n
Some analysts speculate that Pyongyang is willing to risk a round of tougher sanctions because its 2012 harvest was better than anticipated. The new round of belligerence, particularly towards the US \u2013 which it labeled \u201cthe sworn enemy of the Korean people\u201d this week \u2013 may be aimed at rattling the US into direct talks.<\/p>\n
The ultimate goal of the North’s dictatorial regime is to achieve recognition from the US and to sign a non-aggression treaty with Washington, analysts say.<\/p>\n
But there also could be technical reasons for carrying out another nuclear test, nuclear experts say. The North may want to see if it has successfully miniaturized the crude weapons of tests in 2006 and 2009, they say. In addition, after last month’s long-range rocket test, a nuclear test might be aimed at demonstrating that the country is capable of mounting a weapon on a missile.<\/p>\n
Lopez says he expects the climate around the North Korea issue to \u201cget a little more dangerous \u2026 before it has a chance to get better.\u201d He expects a nuclear test sometime in the next three months, which he guesses will lead to tough new sanctions, and then a return to six-party talks on the North’s nuclear program.<\/p>\n
While he doesn’t want to downplay the risks ahead, Lopez points out that North Korea is \u201cyears away\u201d from \u201ctaking an explosive device and successfully putting it on a missile,\u201d according to nuclear experts.<\/p>\n
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