Are You Fragile, Robust, or Antifragile?

If fragile, you are likely to break when conditions get rough. If robust, you’ll survive. If you are Antifragile, a new word coined by Prof. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the title of his latest book, you thrive on change, within limits. Try to be that person; seize the opportunities that change creates.

“The blow that does not crush me strengthens me.” “Every knock is a boost.” “If life gives you a lemon, make lemonade” We’ve heard these adages before, but this brilliant writer explores the core idea in detail. We fear Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), understandably, but there is also Post-Traumatic Stress Strengthening. Scar tissue is often stronger than the original skin. Bones heal more strongly than they were originally. Some people emerge from tragedy to live more insightfully, more joyfully.

In our personal lives, change brings opportunity along with discomfort. A broken friendship or romance frees time for something, or someone, else. Lessons are learned. Next time we will do it differently, perhaps more successfully. “When one door closes, another opens.” Sometimes.

At work, people and procedures change, jobs are lost or become available. If we are fragile, we are hurt. If robust, we persevere. If antifragile, we find a positive element in the new situation and take advantage of it. Organizations evolve, with the more talented and adaptable among their personnel advancing with them. Even bankruptcy puts an end to a bad situation, and we move on.

Prof. Taleb, a successful investor and highly respected intellectual and writer, recommends we take a two-pronged approach to career and to investment: put the overwhelming majority [90%?] of your time and money into relatively safe work and investment options, but put the remaining effort or cash into something that could pay off big if it works out. Debt leaves you fragile. Savings build robustness. Some investments are even antifragile.

Hollywood has many waiters and waitresses who are aspiring actors and actresses. They have put this two-pronged [Taleb’s “barbell”] strategy to use: they have their “day jobs“, but they work at them in hope of ending up as successes in show biz. Many writers do the same: pedestrian daytime employment coupled with nocturnal scribbling. The job supports the dream. The dream makes the mundane job more acceptable.

Taleb contrasts two British brothers: one is a banker, the other a taxicab driver. Both make roughly the same annual income. The banker feels secure, but actually he could lose his job in several ways, including a merger. The middle-aged middle-manager will find it hard to get another job. His taxi-driver brother feels insecure, every day requiring him to get new passengers, their numbers varying widely. However, the cab driver is unlikely ever to lose his job—at worst, he will have some slow days, eventually followed by better ones. Our first impressions of what is fragile and what is not need reconsideration.

Investing can be done this same two-pronged way: most of your money in safe places, a small amount speculating on long-shots, where your losses are limited to what you invested and your gains could be very large indeed. My own speculative investment in sugar futures, suggested by an ex-girlfriend-turned-broker, did not work out well, but your high-risk bet might succeed for you. Just stick to using only your “mad money,” your “play money.” I would not play the lottery, as roughly half the pot goes to government before the pay-off and another chunk comes out of one’s winnings, if any. The possibility of a huge win is fun to contemplate, so some gambling can be part of your “entertainment” budget. Viva Las Vegas? I hate to lose, however, so I do not gamble.

Consider society: a large number of small organizations will survive radical change better than a will few large ones. Decentralization is robust, even antifragile. The units that remain are stronger than those that were crushed. Centralization produces economies of scale but greater difficulty in adapting rapidly. If organizations attempt to assess their risks on the basis of their previous biggest problem, they are likely to underestimate, as that problem was bigger than any that preceded it (surprise!), and the next big one can surpass even that.

Don’t put your faith in predictions, Taleb advises. While one can recognize a hazard, it is hard to know when it will occur. Avoid it. Be skeptical of experts who tell you how big and how soon the next Big Event will be. If you can figure out how to profit from it, do so, thus going beyond being robust to being antifragile.

Embrace change? Go with the flow? Ride with the tide? Ease with the breeze? Sure! No longer fragile, better even than robust, you should be opportunistic, and thus antifragile.

As we soldiers said triumphantly about difficulties we encountered during my sometimes-challenging U.S. Army days, “We eat this stuff up!”

Dr. Cooper is a retired scientist, now a writer, author and writing coach. His first book, Ting and I: A Memoir of Love, Courage and Devotion, was published by Outskirts Press in 2011 and is available from Outskirts Press, Amazon, and Barnes and Noble, in paperback and ebook formats, as are his co-authored memoirs The Shield of Gold and Ava Gardner‘s Daughter? and the memoir he edited, High Shoes and Bloomers. His writer-coaching web site is http://writeyourbookwithme.com.