A resurgent China has made clear that it will no longer accept

A resurgent China has made clear that it will no longer accept US dominance, more so in its neighbourhood, says CP Bhambhri

The Sixth South East Asian summit followed by a meeting of heads of Government and states of the Association for South East Asian countries on November 18 and 19 provided an opportunity to Indian, Chinese and American leaders to spell out their security and strategic concerns for the 21st century. India and China have multiple strategic concerns which often create conflicting situations. The US on the other hand, inspite of being a declining power, still has global interests. It also still has still the capacity to form powerful alliances with countries around the world and successfully pursue its national-global strategic and economic interests.

US President Barack Obama before proceeding to Bali in Indonesia, visited Australia. While there, on November 16, he referred to the Chinese role in the emerging new world order and said that, “It is important for them (China) to play by the rules of the road.” He further observed, “I think the notion that we fear China is mistaken”. He also asserted that, “Let there be no doubt in the Asian Pacific in the 21st century, the United States of America is all in.”

Mr Obama’s policy message was conveyed in an unambiguous language to China and also to America’s traditional allies in East Asia like Japan, the Philippines. He made clear to every country in Asia that “the US is a pacific power and we are here to stay”.

It is but natural that China is wary of America’s intentions especially about its ‘activist’ role in the region. The China versus US sentiment was clearly visible during both the high level meetings held on 17 and 18 November. During these meetings Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told the Asian leaders that every issue should be settled “bilaterally” and “No outside power” should interfere in Asian affairs.

Naturally, the reference was to the US. And China’s message was clear: Keep out of bilateral issues between Asian countries. Further, China asserted its right to play a central role in world affairs and especially in the Asian continent. China has emerged as an economic power house and has maintained an average economic growth rate of 7.5 per cent for the past two decades.

With such an economic base and a powerful military, the country is flexing its muscles. But before it challenges the existing hegemony of America and the European Union, it must consolidate its power base in Asia. Like all other powerful western countries, China too has made clear its desire to deal with its neighbours especially India, Vietnam, and the Philippines on its own terms.

If on the one hand China is competing against America for power in the region, on the other hand India’s own strategic and commercial interests have also created several complex situations between China and itself. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, while in Bali himself, clearly stated India’s position on the South China Sea. He said that, “Issues of sovereignty should be resolved in consistence with international law and practice.” Mr Singh also made clear that India’s oil and gas operations in the South China Sea were purely commercial activities.

Mr Wen, on the other hand, made sugar-coated statements such as how the the “21st century belongs to Asia” and how there is enough space for every Asian country to ‘cooperate.’ Mr Wen left many things vague and unsaid, especially China’s own intentions and plans on the South China Sea which have created a worrisome situation for India, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries that use the trading route that runs through the South China Sea.

It was understood by many countries that Mr Wen’s reference was against the US when he said that “outside forces should not, under any pretext, get involved”. But thats not all. Even India was warned by the Chinese and put under the category of an ‘outside power’ interfering in the South China Sea. Without mincing any words, the Chinese specifically described as unacceptable ONGC Videsh’s oil exploration activities in two Vietnamese blocks which have been claimed by China.

Beijing has identified the South China Sea under its sovereign rights and has told India that no foreign companies should ‘engage in activities that will undermine China’s sovereignty and rights and interests’. India and many other Asian countries have asserted that no one country has sovereign rights over the Sea, but China has dismissed such a view point and has asked for ‘bilateral negotiations.’

The above narrative leads us to raise some questions about the emerging areas of cooperation and conflict among India, China and the US. China is challenging the existing arrangements of dealing with territorial claims based on its own definition of sovereign rights. Also, India and China are engaged in serious negotiations on boundary disputes but nothing significant has emerged. Chinese policies towards India are just to keep the pot boiling and keep the country on tenterhooks.

On the other hand, India’s policy towards China has been that of a soft power which gets translated into a strategy of keeping the powder dry and not raising the conflict situation to a level of no-return. The India-China relationship is at a low-key level so that the situation does not escalate as it did in 1962. The best evidence of this soft-power approach was provided by Mr Singh, who asked the Chinese to “respect international laws and practice.”

A widespread impression exists among Chinese foreign and security policy makers that India is aligned with the US and that the two will stand together on issues concerning China. It must be clearly stated that the US is in search of allies in Asia to checkmate China’s growing influence in the continent.

India has nothing to gain but a lot to lose by aligning with a declining US which is in no position to confront China because its own power cannot meet the challenge of rising Chinese influence. India cannot ignore its immediate neighbours like Pakistan and China and the real engagement of Indian foreign policy makers has to be with these two neighbouring countries in South Asia.

If India wants to play any effective role in international relations, it has to come out of the present limiting factors which have curbed its initiatives in strategies, especially its Look East policy. This picture has clearly emerged from the recent conferences held in Bali in Indonesia.