In the 2012 presidential election, for the first time in U.S. history
In the 2012 presidential election, for the first time in U.S. history African Americans voted at a higher rate than White Americans, while the percentage of White voters dropped from 66.2% in 2008 to 64.7%. This finding — coupled with the fact that African American, Hispanic, and Asian American communities have all favored Democratic candidates in recent elections — has led many to speculate about potential tectonic shifts in American politics. In any case, the country passed a new demographic milestone in July 2011, when for the first time the majority of society’s newest members — children under age 1 — were non-white, according to the Census Bureau.
Scholars Maureen A. Craig and Jennifer A. Richeson (Northwestern University) begin a 2014 study, “On the Precipice of a ‘Majority- Minority’ America: Perceived Status Threat From the Racial Demographic Shift Affects White Americans’ Political Ideology,” by discussing the U.S. Census Bureau projection that racial minority groups will actually make up a majority of the entire U.S. population in 2042. The authors then proceed to describe a series of experiments designed to examine White Americans’ response to such a shift. Specifically, the authors explore whether Whites are more likely to support conservative policies and figures once these anticipated changes in racial demographics are made salient. The study was published in Psychological Science.
Each of the four studies tackles a facet of the question using different social science research methods. Study 1 makes use of data from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press News Interest Index. In it, politically-unaffiliated White respondents were randomly assigned one of two survey forms — one made the majority-minority issue salient, the other did not — and after completing the survey, participants were asked which political party garnered more of their support. In Study 2, the authors attempted to test what mechanism — “group-status threat,” for example — might be the cause of any detected move toward conservatism. Some White Americans from a nationally representative Knowledge Networks sample were randomly assigned to read about projections that racial minorities would soon constitute a majority of the U.S. population, while others read about another topic. The two groups were then asked questions about perceived threats to their way of life as well as their political opinions. Finally, two parts of Study 3 explored the “group threat” hypothesis further, trying to determine if political shifts could be minimized if concerns about this group threat could be alleviated.
Key general findings from the studies include:
“Overall, in a nationally representative sample of White Americans, making the U.S. racial shift salient led to greater endorsement of conservative policies, compared with making a nonracial societal shift salient.”
The conservative shift applies to both race-related and race-neutral policies: “Compared with control participants, participants in the racial-shift condition expressed more support for conservative positions on both race-related issues and more race-neutral policies.”
“Furthermore, these effects were mediated by participants’ concerns about the loss of Whites’ societal status.” In other words, one of the reasons for the shift appears to be “perceived group-status threat” or concern about social hierarchy from White Americans; “these experiments provide striking evidence that perceived group-status threat, triggered by exposure to the majority-minority shift, increases Whites’ endorsement of conservative political ideology and policy positions.”
“These results offer compelling evidence that making a majority-minority racial shift salient can lead Whites to perceive that their racial group’s status is threatened and, in turn, to express greater political conservatism.”
Interestingly, Craig and Richeson note that these findings could assuage Republican concerns about the rise of minority voters weakening their chances at the polls, as Whites become more uniform in their preferences. The authors explain: “One implication of the present work is that Whites may be increasingly likely and motivated to support conservative candidates and policies, in response to the changing racial demographics.” The authors also suggest additional research to better determine just how much these changing demographics and political leanings could practically affect election outcomes.
– See more at: http://journalistsresource.org/studies/society/race-society/majority-minority-america-perceived-status-threat-white-citizens#sthash.7Y3GTCw1.dpuf