Investing – Adjusting the Plan

An Uncertain Start to May. With stocks selling off after earnings, financial reform, a major Gulf oil spill and Greek debt issues, we’re likely in for a bit of a correction as May starts.

The Bright Side: A Short Term Buying Opportunity? Fundamentals remain positive, a correction would resolve overbought conditions and a positive unemployment report could lead to a bit of a renewed rally in the market.

Summer of 2010: Shifting Winds in the 2nd Half. Still, the market is likely to be in transition this summer. As the temporary catalysts of stimulus, cost cutting and inventory re-stocking fall away, we face the question of whether we will have sustained consumer spending and falling unemployment.

The Game Plan. Updated perspectives on tech; large cap value; financials; retail; interest rates, Treasuries and bonds; and China as we approach mid-year.

A Uncertain Start to May

You’d find it hard to ignore what’s going on in the markets, because much of it is all over the news:

• solid earnings indicating a (slowly) recovering economy;
• financial reform and the assault on Goldman Sachs;
• an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that could soon be a major disaster; and sovereign debt problems in Greece, as well as additional credit downgrades in Spain and Portugal.

That’s a lotta stuff to worry about in the world today.

In the midst of all this, it’s been hard to read the market. There have been lots of bullish signs – pre-eminently, a rising market, good earnings and favorable economic indicators. But all these events have made the markets step back. Often, it’s been difficult to tell which way the market would go next. The punditry appears on television and says the market is continuing its unstoppable upward trend. The next day, they change their mind.

I think we’re likely in for a bit of a correction. How much is always hard to tell, but there are reasons to think a correction might not be too big. Next week, several economic indicators – personal income (May 3), construction spending (May 3), auto and truck sales (May 3), unemployment (May 7) and consumer credit (May 7) – could show improvements compared to the recent past. The biggie is, of course, unemployment. Many expect 200,000 or so new jobs, and even though a fair portion could be because of the census, a second month of job gains would be very encouraging. Finally, the Fed continues to support the market by keeping rates low. This week, they re-iterated that conditions are “likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

Many also expect some kind of Greece bailout next week. European Union officials are set to meet Sunday, so many in the market expect a resolution on Monday.

Still, there is some question about what kind of answer the market will have by Monday. For one thing, the Germans have to decide how much of a bailout they want to provide. Ideally, the Germans backstop Greece for the next few years. In that case, markets let out a sigh of relief. However, if the Germans waffle or only offer a band-aid, markets will again be thinking of a contagion scenario. What’s more, Germany must still get any bailout past its Parliament. The bailout can be proposed in Parliament on Monday, a decision won’t occur until at least Friday, May 7th. Meanwhile, the ratings agencies are threatening further downgrades if a solution isn’t found.

And if that weren’t enough, problems in US will continue to make headlines. Financial reform will press forward, which is likely to hold back the financials. The Gulf oil spill will continue to make headlines as the oil hits land, and that will limit energy stocks.

Finally, lest you think all stock analysis is about headlines, the “major names” have reported earnings. In last month’s article, I argued that it was important to see the reaction to earnings, and if you’re thinking of buying stock, it often pays to wait until some weeks after. Well, we are some weeks after, and the pattern has been clear – the market has sold off after earnings, just as it did during the first quarter (if you’re watching Apple, it’s the rare example).

Last time, we looked at Intel. Take a look at the chart:

You’ll see that in mid-April, Intel reports (circled) and bounces up the next day. You’ll also see high volume, circled at the bottom. In the weeks following, you’ll see Intel fall from about $24.25 to the $22.80 range. If there is a general market correction this week, you could see Intel fall further. Also on this chart, you’ll see the same circled patterns in previous quarters. It’s just an example of the general market attitude, which seems to be to take profits and re-assess.

Given these facts, next week, the first week of May, could be very bumpy.

One quick note on data sources. It never ceases to amaze me how inadequate the press is. The news – and even the business news – has had non-stop coverage of Goldman Sachs and the BP oil spill. Greece is almost an afterthought, and the market seems to think that it’s a mere bump in the road. While Goldman and the Gulf oil spill are without a doubt significant, as an investor you should be watching Europe carefully.

The Bright Side: Short Term Buying Opportunity?

On the bright side, a moderate correction and a resolution of some of these headlines could well set the market up for a bit more upside. Stocks have had a fairly powerful run lately, and many think that the market is overbought. A correction and some profit taking would actually relieve somewhat these concerns.

Of course, a resolution on the Greece issue would be bullish for the market. While Portugal and Spain remain as issues, it may be a little while before they impinge on the markets, and a Greece bailout would give some hope that Portugal and Spain could be resolved somewhere down the line.

In a few weeks, it’s possible that the current headwinds – Greece, Goldman Sachs and the Gulf oil spill – could recede from the headlines. In that case, the major remaining near-term overhang would be financial reform. While the market never likes uncertainty, financial reform is likely to be digestible, much as healthcare reform was.

Of course, this is the optimistic scenario, and other outcomes are easily possible. A qualified Greek bailout, or no Greek bailout at all, could roil the markets. Still, at least some kind of Greek band-aid is likely, giving investors the chance to push off underlying concerns in favor of likely good economic news. So if the worrisome headlines fade, investors are faced with a gradually recovering economy and a Fed ready to keep rates low for some time. If the economic indicators, such as unemployment, continue to be positive, then we have a short-term bullish situation for the markets. And in that case, nervous markets over the next couple weeks could be a buying opportunity.

Generally, prognosticators have been optimistic about the markets through the second quarter. I generally agree with this assessment. I constantly ask myself, what might cause a reversal in this great rally we’ve had since March 2009? Obviously, Euro zone debt issues, if they spread beyond Greece, is one possibility. Yet for the moment, I think it’s likely that the EU will find some kind of band-aid, and deal with Spain and Portugal later. Ironically, I think the greater likelihood is that the success of stimulus will create it’s own reaction. The more successful the stimulus, the harder it’s going to be to live without it. And the withdrawal of stimulus has just begun.

Before we get into the medium- and longer-term issues, let’s put some numbers on what we’re looking at in the short-term. Take a look at the chart of the S&P 500 below:

You’ll see a line drawn from the top in October 2007 to the bottom in March 2009. Technical analysts believe that when a certain portion of this drop has been retraced, a reversal is likely. You’ll see these levels marked by the dashed lines – 50% of the retracement, or perhaps 61.8% of the retracement. These levels are based on the Fibonacci sequence. You’ll see that this week, the rally from the bottom in March 2009 reached the 61.8% retracement level at about 1,220 on the S&P. At that point, the market pulled back.

Technical analysis is more of a category_ideline than anything else. So 1,220 could be a major resistance level (meaning we top out at 1,220), but it’s also possible that we could push through 1,220 in the optimistic case. Byron Wein, the famed prognosticator who produces a list of 10 predictions at the beginning of each year, has called for 1,300 by mid-year, followed by a downturn afterwards. Several market observers have even higher targets.

Summer of 2010: Shifting Winds for the Second Half

Personally, I remain skeptical that we would go much beyond 1,300. Somewhere in the second to third quarter period, I think it’s likely that we don’t quite achieve the earnings targets that are expected. And / or unemployment doesn’t fall as quickly as we’d like. At some point, growth slows down and doesn’t continue in a straight line. The reasons could be several, and they’ve been mentioned ad nauseum in this column: consumers still have a lot of debt, the shadow inventory of foreclosures come to the fore, commercial real estate has to face the music, stimulus ends (such as home buyer tax credits), inflation begins to appear.

Mohammed El-Erian, the keen co-head of PIMCO, the Newport, CA bond powerhouse, suggests that we look at things this way: there are cyclical factors and structural factors at work. The recent market rally from the March 2009 bottom has been driven by cyclical factors: government stimulus, cost cutting and inventory re-stocking. This last quarter, we even got a taste in the next step of in the cyclical pattern, consumer spending. GDP numbers released this week show that while GDP fell from 5.6% in Q4 2009 to 3.2% in Q1 2010, consumption increased significantly (to 2.55% from 1.16%) while investment fell (to 1.67% from 4.39%, primarily driven by lower investment in inventories).

Still, these cyclical factors are likely to give way to underlying structural issues in the near future. The Fed has begun withdrawing stimulus, and government programs, such as the home buyer tax credit that expired last week, are being phased out. Only so much cost cutting and inventory re-stocking is possible. These temporary remedies must give way to sustained consumer demand for the recovery to continue. While the recent increase in consumer spending was a welcome surprise, it’s more likely to be temporary – a reflection of pent-up demand – than anything permanent. That’s because unemployment remains high, income growth remains weak, credit remains tight and deleveraging of home equity continues. These underlying structural problems can be pushed into the background, but they don’t go away. Make no mistake, the structural issues are ameliorating as well, but it takes more time to fix these issues. So what we are will see is a slowdown in the growth rate, mirrored by a cooling in the stock market.

The Game Plan

So what should the investor do? Let me first start by saying, as I always do, that when I guesstimate the market’s direction, it’s not really about being right. It’s always about identifying the factors that drive the market. If you have only one fixed view of the market, then it’s hard to change course. In that case, everything looks like an unimaginable black swan. But if you know what the market’s drivers are and you’ve considered alternative outcomes, then it’s easier to adapt as a situation evolves. That’s the purpose of these lengthy articles.

So below is a rough game plan. Some items are a re-iteration of previous ideas, others are new.

Buy Tech. There are lots of reasons to like tech. As I’ve said before, there are several secular trends in tech (meaning, they’ll do well in spite of market cyclicality) – smartphones (Apple, Broadcom), PC renewal (Windows 7 – Intel, Microsoft), cloud computing, infrastructure buildout (CSCO), services and software (IBM, Oracle), the delivery of data (e.g. Akamai for video delivery) via the internet. There’s two other reasons to like tech going forward: firms are likely to favor increasing productivity via technology rather than through hiring, and tech spending tends to occur during the second half of the year. I am long all the above-mentioned stocks except Broadcom.

Rotation into Large-Cap Value. If you accept the thesis that the second half of the year will be weaker than the first half, then it makes sense to rotate out of the “hot” areas and into the more defensive large cap value stocks, such as the P&Gs and JNJs of the world. Because these are slow and steady, they tend to get left behind when the market is running up quickly. Thus, they have lagged the market. In more defensive environments, these stocks become favorites. I’ve mentioned these before in this column, and I remain positive on them as part of the portfolio. Other stocks that are similar include Altria (MO), PM (Philip Morris International), Coke (KO), Clorox (CLX) and Walmart.

One note though – many of these are now very international, so they are vulnerable to weakness in Europe and a rising dollar. So you have to look at the composition of their sales. Ideally, they should have enough exposure to fast-growing emerging markets to offset any weakness in the US or Europe. Also, I’ve been keeping an eye out for a burst of the bubble in China. If that occurs, we could have weakness in Europe and Asia, as well as in commodities exporters such as Australia, Canada and Brazil. In this case, the heavily international firms will pull back. Still, most of these stocks have a dividend and are less volatile than many other stocks in the market. So these considerations must be taken into account. I am long MO, PM, KO and CLX in my own account or in client accounts.

Opportunistic Investment in Financials. If you’ve been reading this column, you know that I’m a long-term fan of the financials. The bigger question is, when is a good time to step in? The first issue we have to deal with is financial reform. Healthcare may serve as a good example for understanding the course of financials. Healthcare stocks sold off as reform became more likely, but rose as reform was ratified and investors decided that things would be as bad as they thought. Then the healthcare companies started to calculate the cost of healthcare reforms, and several weeks after healthcare reform passed, investors sold off healthcare stocks as companies announced estimated costs. I think we’re likely to see a similar pattern in financials.

Another consideration is the potential Euro zone crisis. Historians haven’t missed the fact that back in the Great Depression, the market rallied just as it has over the past year. Back then, it was the collapse of a European bank, Credit Anstalt of Austria, that led to a run on German banks, the US doubling interest rates in response and a second leg down that was the heart of the Great Depression. It’s likely that Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is keenly aware of this history and is working to avoid the same outcome. So while this is something to watch for, I currently do not expect a repeat of the calamity that was the Great Depression.

Finally, the investor in financials has to think about a possible second dip as real estate sales slow, more residential and commercial real estate foreclosures are recognized, and consumers struggle with persistent unemployment.

All these factors means that the active investor may wish to trade in and out of financials, with an eye toward holding a core position for the day that losses and earnings become normalized (that is, when banks don’t have to reserve massive amounts for losses, giving a huge kick to earnings). The less active investor will have to face some volatility in financials, but long-term prospects (2-3 years out) are very good.

Rotation Out of Retail. The surprise of the first quarter has been the strength in consumer spending. There might be a little more here, but if the scenarios that I’ve outlined above are correct, then it would make sense to step out of retail going into the second half. In any case, the market has a tendency to rotate out of sectors that have performed well. Take a look at the following chart of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF. You’ll see the steep ascent of the index through March. The jagged maroon-ish line is the S&P 500 Index, and it’s clear that the retail index has outperformed the broad market. That makes retail a vulnerable place to be in the next couple weeks. A correction would be necessary for the ascent to continue.

Interest Rates, Treasuries and Bonds. In previous articles, I had argued that we have a bubble in Treasuries and that both Treasuries and bonds would sell off as interest rates rose. Greece and the Eurozone changes that assessment. Had we not had Eurozone fears, positive economic indicators might have encourage the Fed to raise rates sooner. Because of Europe’s sovereign debt problems, we now have money coming into the US for safety. This supports both Treasury and bond prices. Also, interest rates will stay low for longer. Nevertheless, I would be sure to stay away from Euro-related debt. I doubt that Europe will resolve all its issues in one weekend. More likely, a resolution will come over time, so expect these conditions to persist.

China Watch. I have been long of the opinion that China is in a bubble. That now seems to be the consensus opinion, although when and how the bubble will burst is anyone’s guess. For the moment, China is trying to rein in its economy, and the market has recognized this effort. Take a look at this chart of the Shanghai composite index.

You’ll notice that the Shanghai market started to recover in early November 2009, several months ahead of the bottom in the US in March 2009. But the Shanghai index peaks in August 2009, and has been range-bound ever since. You’ll see from August 2009 until March 2010, the range has tightened, in what is known to technical analysts as a “wedge” formation. Technicians interpret this as a battle between the bulls and the bears, with the range becoming ever tighter (like a game where the score gets closer as we approach the end). Finally, you’ll see that in April, at the end of the wedge, the battle resolves – to the downside. We break out of the wedge downward, as shown by the small green arrow on the right. This is a bearish resolution, so I, for one, am staying away from China unless I see a substantive reason to jump in.

Disclaimer. All material presented herein is believed to be accurate but we cannot attest to its accuracy. All trades, patterns, charts, systems, etc. discussed in this article are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as specific advisory recommendations. All ideas and material presented are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher. All readers are urged to consult with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions.

No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the above approaches will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses. The examples used herein are not intended to represent or guarantee that anyone will achieve the same or similar results. Each individual’s success depends on his or her background, dedication, desire and motivation.

The author may or may not have investments in the stocks or sectors mentioned.

As always, I encourage you to consult your own investment advisors before making any investments. I don’t claim to be right; I can only present you my logic, and I hope you will take the time to do your own homework and decide if you agree or disagree with the arguments presented here. Also, if you really feel like spending some more time on stocks, there’s more on my blog at http://mingloinvesting.blogspot.com.

Until the next time, sleep well.

Ming Lo is an actor, director and investor. He has an A.B. from Harvard College, Cum Laude, and an MBA and an MA Political Science from Stanford University. Prior to going into entertainment, Ming worked at Goldman, Sachs & Co. in New York and at McKinsey & Co. in Los Angeles.